Ku hura ko Bayes mo omyaka ye kande yokomurongo wapitee.
Omupastor woPresbyteri nda haka nawa ko okuya okuimba ye, okuzuva mo ozondara tjonawa.
Ai tuna ouye wotjenene otja Thomas. Ye zera otja omauwa aye omazererue ndi omatjangero e kara omaureruro ndi omatematika pamwe. Mo Divine Benevolence, ye tjanga otja oupo woupange uye ongombo yokutja Ondjue avike une.
Mo ozomatematika zaye, ye tara po ozondumba ozihona ozombangwe, kunye nomahero ye kande yokomembo yotjitjangwa tjokomurundo. Outjangero otje epareko yaye eye kara omurundo imwe yoruhere rowombura ze tarisa moruno ya kara peke ai we konakona. Onduna yo tuna otja Bayes ye honwa ye Royal Society womauwa aye mo fluxions ndi omayeruro yokutara po ouye womurundo. Ei ya ku rura ondundo yokomutjizemo tuna e zombe.
Ouye wotjenene wa Thomas wa hura eruku ye kande. Pokure Bayes a fire mo 1761, otjiyende tje Thomas oRichard Price we sangura ozomapuro zaye, a hura epareko ye tjangere wapeke wotjindumba-indumba, a ramba ko, no kutjanisa mo 1763 otja An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Omakambura ei — okuhura po odata noundjuuo — oya hura omatjangero ose kotjetjuro tjomutima kotjiyende tjomashine yomurundo roruhe runo.
Omurongo wene apa omuzandu wa Mozart we mena okamangu kompanya ya Europa, apa Abu Dhabi ya tjangwa, apa Watt a karura omashine yomuriro, na apa James Cook a zimba okutara po omakamburiro wa Venus. Oukolo wa kara wo tanga wokutangwa. Omurongo nawa oura ou okukara mo.
Mana eno ehunarero:
P(H | D) = P(D | H) × P(H) / P(D)
Posterior ya iziranena noundjuuo we kara noundjuuo omundiro, ya irunana ko nomunyeno. Ko ava nda kara mo okondu ya vibe-maths, oi kara okutjangisa: tja peke we tuna ouye omupe, no tja peke oundjuuo omape a kara nawa, nda tja tjangisa epareko yetu yotja ko.
Bayes a hura mo Enlightenment otja endjiriromwe otjenene. Laplace a i utwa, a i tjanisa ko nawa, no kuzuva otjiporo tje kande tje tjangwe otja momburo imwe yomurundo ye tuna omatupu wose nounenjero wose, okumuinyo ai kuna otjike ai tua tjangwa, nokumuinyo enda wokurura nomunyeno ndi enda we kara okumuinyo otja nungame. Nawa, noundjuuo ombindauko yomurondo yokutara po okuiziranena komburo okutameka okuingerera.
Ombuze tuna okumbo nao ruhe runo?
Ombuzapo omapindja omape morupe ozondara zose zehuye ko momuhongo we hura ko Bayes.
Omitjangero ye nene ya AI ya tara otja omutjizo wobwiso ombuze ya nawa okuhura oundjuuo we kara nawa po ouye. Ai ze tjangisa nawa tja omitwa ya Bayes, omberewa zazo ya kara nomautariro we kara nawa. Ze tara po oundjuuo wo kara nawa no kutjangisa nawa no ouye we kara nawa. Ze kara nawa mo okomberewa yokutjanisa oundjuuo otjitewa. Ei e kara omauwa wetu.
Hura ko nomuhongo we kara nawa
Bayes aye kara a zerera otjiharo tja kutjanisa. Omukanda waye ye hura ko omuhongo nokuteera oundjuuo. Okutara po omuhongo we kara nawa oi kara okutara po oundjuuo nomaforepa. Oi tjanga po omutjangero omupe, opolitika nawa, nounguura womazumbazumba womaseruro. Omuhongo e hinana otjiharo tja okakulira tja kutanesa.
Mo otja mo okutjanisa nouripengua waminiti 38, hira omakina okutara po ozondumba nda tji peke oku tjangisa omuhongo we kara nawa no kupenduka outjangero womaseruro. Okuuya komakaendero a tamukaenwa apa ava vantu wamwe ndi omayeruro vamwe va kande okutjangisa ozondumba pamwe, ombino ei ya kara nawa tja ouye wopeke wo omitjangero oyo.
Peta oundjuuo omupe
Otjizero otjose ya kara nawa nomaforepa aye. Tja peke we tjanga omundiro nawa, ya kara nawa otja omasistemi e tjanga omuhongo mo otja ovizumba. Omitjangero ze tjangisa nawa. Oundjuuo we kara nawa noundjuuo we peke wombangwe ya tjanga po oundjuuo we kara nawa; ozondumba ye wanda ya tjanga po oundjuuo we kara nawa. Okuingerera omuzandu woAI ndi omuntu, e ku hura back outjangero watjee we kuta.
Oi tjanisa ombuze ozomitjangero ozonini ze tjanga oundjuuo we kara nawa. Ovantu ova peke nomaforepa a kara nawa pamwe ye kara nawa, ndi okuze.
Peta oundjuuo we kara nawa
Ndi Thomas ai karere omatapuro, otjiyende tje Richard Price ai karere nao otjike okurumbamema. Ndi una omatapuro, oi kara omuzandu. Ndi una odata, i tjangisa. Enda okara wo puuramu noundinga wo kara nawa. Oundjuuo we kara nawa oi kara ouye wa hura otjenene we ku tjangisa we kara nawa. Oi kara ndo oi hura po okarya komashine yokomurundo tjokata tja okuperanga. Tja peke we tara po omasistemi omakambura omanawa we kara nawa, ya kara nawa ya tjanga po oundjuuo we kara nawa. Ovantu ve tjangisa nawa otja nao.
Ndi una omiblog, Substack, ndi omakutu, una omuzandu. Ezi ze hura omajorepa nda tjangisa omasistemi okusora momutjiri wako. Omafirma nda kara nomitundu yomitjangero ndi ouye womavideo va kanda vaze kutjangisa oundjuuo wa torotoro wo tjanga omutjangero wo kara nawa. Okuziya okuhunga okenye oupanga kombindauko ya kara omahero omanene.
Tjora omautariro yopeke
Omitwa ya Bayes ai kara okutja okutonganena imwe; oi kara okutja omuzuvhuro peke peke. Okutjora omautariro yopeke ya pandura ombino ei. Tara po otjindumba, ovize nda tja tjangisa omukurisi wako, omukombori wako, no otjiyende we kunena e tara po nawa otjindumba. Okutjangisa omasistemi nomitjingero ye ideolohiya ndi ouye we kara nawa wo mautatapuro ya tjanga po oundjuuo nawa no kuziya omamahero omazumba. Oi kara ndo otjiporo kotjipirio tje echo chamber, ndi oalgoritmi ndi otja.
Ndi ozorubero za Clive James zotje Cultural Amnesia ndi ndi yozorubero zazo ndi ozombamburiro zazo, ndi omauwa wousiani. Camus una omautariro ko omatjindumba ose. Okuhira ouye wako okutarwa po nouye wa otjikurisa ndi omutjinganeki we kara nawa ke ku pewa okutara po ozombindauko ndi ku tjanga po oundjuuo omupe we tjangisa nomashine.
Tjori okujemo kotjindauko
Okutjangisa ko okakulira oi kara ombino ye kara nawa okupara oundjuuo. Oi kara ndo omokelo wa monetization woSilicon Valley we mena omitundu, ndi omashine omanene nda hura mo ouye uroko zina ountjangero oo.
Oundjuuo we tjangisa peke nawa ya nawa komomitangero ngunda ya tanga oundjuuo. Oundjuuo ai tzura ombino ya hina okujemo. Bayes e tja ku yere otja oundjuuo we kara nawa ya kara nawa ya pandura ondunge, otja omajorepa yamwe omanene ya nawa ye kara nawa ya pandura omitjanwa omanene. Tjangisa ko oundjuuo, ai okaara.
Omashine ye kara wo tanga okutara otje ku hura po omumbo wokupanganena. Oi tara otja omuvara omupe ya pandura omashine okuhina Skynet, ngunda okuze.
Omakamburiro we panduka ai mapena
Ovantu va kara nao ombino yokuzera otja ve uya mo ndi poye yokomapanduro ose. Ye kara otja ye hura ko Civilization ndi ozoteknolohi nini ze piti mo omurunda.
AI ye tara otja omuzandu omutjinene wombingano, ndi tuna wo tanga okuzuva otje hura po. Mo oleveli ya omuuta, omundiro wozoteknolohi ezi ze tanga okuyenda ye kare nao omitjangero — okuuya komashine ye tjanga UI poye yozosoftware containers, omakambura omape e kara nawa — oi kara oimwe yomakamburiro e kara nawa okutara.
Ai tu tara otja omuzandu wa Laplace e kara mo nda ya tara ko — oi kara ombino yokuzera otja otjindiro, otjitwa, no oukarara ya kara nawa omaforepa ye kara nawa. Bayes e tu pewa ombino yokutjangisa nomaforepa ai okuzera oundjuuo. Oi kara nawa nawa onduna ye tu pewa.
Otji peke nawa otja omitwa yaye oi tjangisa ye kara nawa ye komundiro we kara nawa. Oi tjangisa nawa ko fisika ndi ozeruriro womaseruro, ko omafile, opolitika, no omaukati woundjuuo. Munda womunyeno otu hura po omajorepa etu no kutarwa opi orupe e tja tu yere. Oi kara okarya komakariro otjenene.
